Robert Rubin: Economic Decision-Making During Times of Uncertainty

Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

Robert Rubin, the 70th U.S. Treasury Secretary, sat down with David Rubenstein at The Economic Club of Washington, D.C. for an in-depth conversation about his remarkable career journey and new book "The Yellow Pad." The discussion traced Bob's unconventional path from graduating summa cum laude from Harvard to spending just three days at Harvard Law School before departing for the London School of Economics, eventually graduating from Yale Law School and practicing briefly at Cleary Gottlieb. His transition to Goldman Sachs in the risk arbitrage department marked the beginning of a 26-year tenure that would see him rise to co-CEO alongside Steve Friedman.

The conversation delved into Bob's pivotal role in government service, beginning with his creation and leadership of the National Economic Council under President Clinton before becoming Treasury Secretary. During his tenure, Bob helped engineer budget surpluses for the first time in a generation while managing significant crises including the Mexican financial crisis, Asian financial crisis, and debt ceiling standoffs. The interview highlighted his collaborative relationship with Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, featuring their monthly breakfast meetings where they discussed everything except interest rates to preserve Fed independence.

Throughout the discussion, Bob emphasized his core philosophy of probabilistic thinking and embracing uncertainty—central themes in "The Yellow Pad." He candidly discussed his later role at Citigroup during the 2008 financial crisis, his passion for fly fishing, and his belief that all decisions involve weighing probabilities rather than seeking false certainties. When asked about his proudest achievement, Bob characteristically deflected, noting that his mind doesn't work that way, instead preferring to focus on doing each task well and moving to the next challenge.