How to make decisions in an uncertain world

Interview on CNN’s Smerconish

Robert Rubin joins Michael Smerconish on CNN to discuss his latest book, "The Yellow Pad: Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World," and the philosophical approach that has guided his approach to decision-making throughout his career on Wall Street, in the White House, and at the Treasury Department. The conversation explores a pivotal moment during Rubin’s sophomore year at Harvard, when a philosophy professor's observation that "nothing can be proven in an absolute sense" fundamentally shaped his worldview. This revelation led Rubin to develop what he calls a "probabilistic mindset”: the practice of identifying multiple possible outcomes, assessing their likelihood, and making decisions based on careful analysis rather than absolute certainties.

Rubin describes how he has pursued this approach using his signature tool—a yellow legal pad—to systematically work through complex decisions. He emphasized how this methodology served him well, whether he was working in Goldman Sachs' arbitrage department or crafting economic policy in the Clinton White House. The discussion also touches on his "energetic curiosity," which at age 85 continues to drive him to explore new subjects like artificial intelligence, demonstrating the lifelong learning mindset that has characterized his approach to both personal and professional challenges.