How to make decisions in an uncertain world

Interview on CNN’s Smerconish

Robert Rubin joined Michael Smerconish to discuss his latest book, "The Yellow Pad: Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World" and the philosophical approach that has guided his distinguished career from Goldman Sachs to the Treasury Department. The conversation explored a pivotal moment during Bob's sophomore year at Harvard, when a philosophy professor's observation that "nothing can be proven in an absolute sense" fundamentally shaped his worldview. This revelation led him to develop what he calls a "probabilistic mindset" – the practice of identifying multiple possible outcomes, assessing their likelihood, and making decisions based on careful analysis rather than absolute certainties.

Throughout the interview, Bob reflected on the practical application of this approach, symbolized by his reliance on yellow legal pads to systematically work through complex decisions. He emphasized how this methodology served him whether running Goldman Sachs' arbitrage department or crafting economic policy in the Clinton White House. The discussion also touched on his concept of "energetic curiosity," which at age 85 continues to drive him to explore new subjects like artificial intelligence through regular tutorials, demonstrating the lifelong learning mindset that has characterized his approach to both personal and professional challenges.